Fierce hurricane season predicted

2010-5-27

Federal forecasters today called for an "active" to "extremely active" hurricane season this year, with anywhere from 14 to 23 named storms expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Of those named storms, 8 to 14 should become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 "major" hurricanes, with wind speeds above 111 mph.


FORECAST Q&A: Rice answers your questions at 1 ET

Tropical storms are given a name when wind speeds reach 39 mph, and are upgraded to hurricane status when their sustained winds reach 74 mph. An average Atlantic hurricane season sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, with two becoming major hurricanes.

Forecasters do not predict the number of storms that will make landfall.

The forecast was announced Thursday morning by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at a press conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said NOAA chief Jane Lubchenco. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."

Forecasters say that some of the factors that support this outlook include a weakening El Nino, record warm Atlantic Ocean water, and the fact that we're in an era of high activity.

Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Nino is dissipating. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.

Sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees above average – are now present in this region, NOAA reports